Are We In Recession Already?

(New Video)

Author

Don Kaufman
April 10, 2025

Hey there, Blake Young here. 

There's a TON going on in this market right now.

We're seeing volatility that would make a rollercoaster seem tame:

  • Drops of 15-20%

  • Recoveries of 10%

  • Pullbacks of 5%

  • Today alone: dropped 6.7%, recovered to only be down 4%

The market is desperately trying to find price discovery but can't seem to locate where buyers and sellers agree. 

It's violent, volatile, and wildly inconsistent.

What's driving this chaos?

  • LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED CPI DATA: Core CPI came in at 0.1%, total CPI actually negative 0.1% - we're seeing disinflation, but not deflation (yet)

  • THE TARIFF QUESTION: Are we seeing tariff impacts now? Will we see them in 90 days? Has the damage already been priced in? Nobody knows - and that uncertainty is killing the market

  • WHERE ARE WE IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE? All signs point to early contraction - with defensive sectors and consumer staples holding up while commodities begin to fall

  • EARNINGS SEASON CLUES: Watch financials like a hawk - if they miss AND guide lower, we're not at the recession bottom yet

  • FINANCIAL SECTOR WARNING SIGNS: XLF patterns suggest we're at a critical juncture - a potential 8-9% recovery or possibly a 15% correction

  • CONSUMER SPENDING RED FLAGS: Visa and Mastercard transaction patterns tell a concerning story about global economic health

  • THE CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE: CarMax (-17% off earnings), Capital One, and Ally - all showing serious signs of trouble

I'm looking for the next leg down specifically in financials, and I'll be using them to determine when the entire market bottoms before going broadly bullish again.

This is a critical time to stay informed and positioned properly. Don't miss the complete analysis - including the charts that tell the real story.

Talk tomorrow,

Blake Young

P.S. Tomorrow's earnings lineup is crucial: JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Bank of New York Mellon. Join TheoTrade Market Masters LIVE at no cost, starting at 8:45 AM ET for the earnings breakdowns. 

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