Bonds broke Friday. Equities haven't noticed.

The 10-year ripped from 4.45% to 4.60% Friday. Gap higher on volume. The bond market broke.

I have been watching bonds for 30 years. That kind of one-day move on the ZN does not happen without consequence.

But equities? S&Ps down 1.3%. Apple up, Costco at the highs, Adobe up, Microsoft up because Ackman is in.

Everybody is playing the shell game. Capital rotating between names.

Nobody hedging. Nobody pricing in what just happened on the long end.

This is the calm before. And the calm is exactly what worries me.

I just recorded my weekly breakdown of where this goes next.

Here's what it’s all about:

→ The bond futures chart that showed Friday as a 3-year standout move, and what the same setup did in March 2000 the last time it appeared

→ Why the US dollar getting bid for four straight sessions is "duck and cover" in plain sight, and the only honest reason anyone is buying the dollar right now

→ The musical chairs game inside major tech (Apple at the upper edge of its expected move, Amazon outside the lower edge, Google halfway down) and why this lack of correlation is the most dangerous tell in the market

→ The new Fed chair who started his job Friday and what nobody is asking him

→ Why oil above $100 is the second confirmation nobody wants to talk about, and the level it has to hold to keep this thesis alive

Watch the full breakdown here.

Smoke them if you got them.

To your success,

Don Kaufman