Don's Pre-Thanksgiving Market Reality Check

Don Kaufman here. 

These are the worst days ever. These are so one sided.

I wouldn't even think about putting on a short trade today - not even close. When the market's this manic, you step aside and watch the show.

We're seeing pure rotation within the AI bubble now. Google versus Nvidia. That's it. That's all that's really left driving this thing. 

Yesterday I literally put on both a bullish trade in Nvidia and a bearish trade in Google, figuring they'd just keep rotating against each other.

Here's what's really happening: We're in the latter innings of this AI bubble. The sign is exactly what we're seeing - manic rotations within the sector itself. 

They're trying to force capital down the same hole, and when it doesn't work, they just rotate back to the other one.

Nobody wants the actual stock. 

Every ounce of volume you're seeing is just market makers hedging their option books.

The options volume IS the marketplace now. Don't listen to any other BS.

Oracle? Now there's a company playing with fire. They took on catastrophic debt to finance the AI infrastructure build-out. We're talking $95 billion in net debt - you rarely see that in a company profile. 

Their bet is that OpenAI becomes the most successful thing ever. But if Google keeps gaining ground? Oracle gets ostracized fast.

My Hood trade from this morning? Pure bounce-and-fade setup. Three consecutive weeks it's breached the expected move to the downside. Got the rip-your-face-off rally with short covering, now it should come right back off.

Before you ask - yes, I'm stuck here all day because two of my kids are off school. Not just Thursday and Friday like normal people. It's a nine-day weekend now. Post-COVID, they just shut down for anything.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone. Try not to blow up any accounts while I'm gone.

To your success,

Don Kaufman