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- Fed cuts... interest rates go HIGHER???
Fed cuts... interest rates go HIGHER???
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Don Kaufman here.
Look, something's seriously off here.
The Fed just cut rates... and interest rates went HIGHER.
84 million option contracts traded TODAY - a new record - and the market acts like nothing happened.
Volatility futures finished higher while the S&P hit new highs.
Dogs and cats living together, people.
I've been behind the desk through enough financial crises to know when something stinks. And right now? This whole setup reeks.
Here's what nobody's talking about:
• Why the "mother of all products" - the SPX - traded 4 million contracts TODAY while Apple looks like a pimple in comparison
• The shocking reason home builders closed at the LOWER edge of their expected move despite getting the rate cut they wanted
• Why I'm seeing volatility futures doing something I've NEVER seen before
But here's the kicker - next week's volatility just dropped to rock bottom. Like VIX-under-11 rock bottom.
You know what that tells me?
DON'T sell options. You're gonna get killed.
TODAY we took a massive ball of risk and just... kicked it down the road. That ball's still there, sitting in the shadows, waiting.
The market found a way TODAY by stuffing order flow down tech's throat:
• Tesla gapping outside expected moves for three straight weeks
• Meta breaking upper edges on zero news (maybe some broken RayBans?)
• Microsoft flat all week then mysteriously pumping into today's close
They're stuffing option order flow down a very narrow corridor. But what happens when that corridor gets crowded?
I'm tracking the angles most retail traders miss. The dollar reversing hard TODAY. Bonds selling off when they should rally.
And volatility? Still elevated after we supposedly "passed through the risk."
That gets me on my game.
Look, I spent 15 years at thinkorswim and TD Ameritrade. My job is spotting where you can get your head taken off. Right now, all the warning signs are flashing.
• The specific $94 expected move setup that almost hit perfectly TODAY (and what it means for next week)
• Why volatility staying elevated post-Fed is the biggest red flag I've seen
• The exact reason next week's $84 expected move with rock-bottom volatility is a death trap for option sellers
This quiet week? It's gonna lead to something big.
Don't be the person giving your money away because you didn't see it coming.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
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