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- Fed meeting changed my whole setup (here's what I'm seeing)
Fed meeting changed my whole setup (here's what I'm seeing)
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Hey there, Blake here.
Bombs flying in the Middle East. Inflation is still strong. GDP going negative.
And today the Fed told us they're probably not cutting rates in 2025.
Here's what I'm seeing though - the market's not buying it. We've got this 90% probability of no rate cut in July, but futures are still pricing cuts by December.
That conflict? That's when I start looking for opportunities.
The S&P's been telling us something important.
We've tested the same 590 to 600 level for 10 out of 13 days. Same range, whether volume's up or down. In a strong bull market, you'd expect lift. We're not getting it. To me, this feels like we're topping out.
Look, six months ago you could just buy the Magnificent 7 and look like a genius. That's what works in a raging bull market. But that playbook doesn't work when things are shifting like this. Higher borrowing costs mean those leveraged companies - tech, small caps - they're going to struggle.
So I'm looking at the sectors everyone's ignoring.
Utilities, healthcare, consumer staples. These defensive plays that actually benefit when things get uncertain. And I'm seeing some price patterns setting up right now that have my attention.
• The consumer staples sector that just bounced off channel support - I think this could deliver double digits while paying you to wait (but there's one stock inside it that's setting up for something bigger)
• Why I think the aerospace defense run isn't over - there's a specific breakout level I'm watching that could confirm the next leg
• The oversold play near strong support with a gap fill target - the risk-reward setup here is the kind I rarely see
Look, when you've got a hawkish Fed in a non-hawkish economy, that creates the exact environment where defensive sectors shine. The patterns I'm seeing suggest this rotation is just getting started.
Because while everyone's still chasing yesterday's winners, tomorrow's opportunities are setting up right now.
See you inside,
Blake Young
Former Thinkorswim executive Don Kaufman reveals how to spot institutional "footprints" before explosive market moves happen. This isn't technical analysis – it's trading forensics that works in ANY market condition.
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