My 2 Cents: Nvidia Reports Tonight.

Nvidia reports after the bell tonight.

Tonight every commentator, YouTuber, and financial media outlet will have a prediction. 

The financial media will be bullish because their advertisers need them to be, and the YouTubers will ask you to make them a bicycle clown. 

If you get in the way of that noise, it is going to systematically dismantle you.

Here is the only question that matters: does Nvidia move more than the expected move says it should? 

Look that number up before the report, as of now, we are looking at 6-6.5% expected move. 

That is the market telling you what it has already priced in.

Anything inside that number is expected. A move beyond it means something genuinely changed.

Target proved it this morning. The expected move said $9.90. The stock was down $9 and something cents at the open.

Chicken's done. 

The market told you what it was going to do before a single analyst opened his mouth.

This morning was a good day to sit on your hands and remember that. Retail stepped back hard yesterday. Options volume came in at 62 million contracts against a 75 million average.

Eleven million contracts went missing. Professional hedging in the S&P futures was massive. 

Tony Rago always says save some of that mental capital because you are going to need it for today.

While I was watching the tape, I was thinking about Frankie Walsh. 

Frankie Walsh was the first floor broker in the OEX pit at the CBOE in the early 1980s, and he used to get his orders on literal cards. He lives between Prescott, Arizona and Rhinelander, Wisconsin now.

If you know where Rhinelander is, you either live in Canada or drink a lot of beer. The boat went back in the water this week, which means Memorial Day is officially here.

My kids are wrapping school today and I have a fifth grader walking in a ceremony tomorrow. It is unorganized chaos with germs. 

I tried to talk the kid out of it.

The Pakistani army chief announced he is visiting Iran this morning. The S&Ps ripped 40 handles in two minutes. We are pricing in peace for the 280th time, and I am glad I did not have intraday positions on.

The S&P daily expected move is $48. I will be watching the upper edge as the NASDAQ runs into the close. 

If we get there, there may be an opportunity on the short side and I will post it in chat.

Next week is a short week going into Memorial Day. Volume tapers, expected moves get smaller, and the marketplace behaves accordingly. 

I will walk you through what that means for positioning on Monday.

To your success, 

Don Kaufman