New Post

May 24, 2024

At This Point, Good Data Could Be Atrocious for Markets
By Don Kaufman

Note: You can see for yourself how screwed-up this market is. Worse is coming. Here’s how you can prepare…

There’s an old (but usually true) cliche for times like we’re in now: “Bad news is good news,” meaning, terrible economic news is great for the markets, because it could lead to looser policy at the Fed. 

Well, if that’s true… you don’t have to be Warren Buffett to figure out what good data could mean.

Look at the way markets behaved this week - starting with the SPX, the Mother of All Products. For the week’s first two sessions, we got nothing. A test pattern. Completely stagnated. Low volume, zilch.  

Wednesday, we got the FOMC minutes which, for the first time in a while, indicated a willingness to raise rates because inflation is still too damn high. This at a time when the market is still anticipating one cut (though the big boys like Goldman have said they expect no cuts in 2024). 

These FOMC minutes were as hawkish as it gets, and the markets barely reacted to this at all, save for a quick dip and a rally back.  

Like I’ve said, this screams “complacency” (or denial). Meanwhile, the VIX - the workin’ Joe’s volatility yardstick - below 12. PMI data this morning failed to jolt markets, too. 

This probably isn’t going to end well. 

TheoTrade Daily Chatroom Schedule for Tuesday, May 28, 2024
The post-holiday chatroom schedule is TBD as of Friday’s press time, but should look something like…
9:20 AM to 10:30 AM: Yours truly, Don Kaufman
10:30 AM to 11:30 AM: Professor Jeff Bierman 
11:30 AM to 12:30 PM: Blake Young 
12:30 PM to 1:15 PM: Gianni Di Poce 
1:15 PM to 2:00 PM: Brandon Chapman 
2:00 PM to 3:00 PM: Tony Rago
3:00 PM to 4:00 PM: Corey Rosenbloom

Gianni’s Readers Just Booked a 30%-Plus Win
According to Gianni, he doesn’t usually trade U.S. natural gas (for profit, anyway), but this one was too good to pass up. He closed out a trade in the UNG natural gas ETF for more than 30%... in less than a month. Any way you slice it, that blows the markets away. Keep your eyes on your inbox for an invite to Gianni’s next presentation - should be mid-June if not sooner.

We’ll talk again soon,

Don Kaufman
Co-Founder, TheoTrade