The Block Trade on Intel That Called a 20% Move Six Weeks Early

A $700,000 call sweep hit Intel on March 25th.

The stock was up 7 to 10 percent that day on AI and chip sector optimism. Most people looked at that move and thought they had missed the trade. I was looking at the options flow. 

Call volume ran at 55 to 64 percent of total options activity with over 269,000 contracts traded. Two block trades stood out. A $700,000 call buyer on May expiry and a $445,000 call buyer right behind it.

A call option gives the buyer the right to purchase a stock at a specific price before a set date. When institutions buy calls in that size, the market maker on the other side of the trade has to hedge by purchasing the underlying stock. 

As Intel climbed toward those strike prices, the hedging requirement grew, which forced more stock buying, which pushed the price higher still. The mechanical pressure was set in motion on March 25th, six weeks before earnings day.

These were not small trades placed at the bid hoping for a pullback. Both came in as sweeps, meaning aggressive buyers hitting the asking price across multiple exchanges simultaneously. 

That is the signature of institutional money positioning for a specific outcome on a specific timeline, not a retail trader taking a flier.

Last Friday Intel reported earnings after the close and moved 23 percent. The stock opened Monday at $81 and trading around $84. 

The call sweep on March 25th was institutional money telegraphing exactly where that stock was going before any of the fundamental catalysts were public knowledge.

Wednesday is the most important earnings night of the quarter. 

Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all report after the close on the same afternoon the FOMC delivers its rate decision. 

Heavy options flow has been hitting all four names in size over the last two to three weeks. 

Out of the money calls and puts , meaning strikes above where the stocks are currently trading, with expiration dates clustered around this week. 

When institutions accumulate that kind of positioning, market makers accumulate hedges alongside it. 

The stock moves before the earnings number even drops.

At 2 PM ET today I am going live to walk through exactly what the institutional call positioning looks like on these four names heading into Wednesday night and what the mechanical setup means for how they could move after the close.

Join Me Live at 2 pm ET Today

See you there,

Brandon Chapman