The Market You Think You Know Died in the 1990s

Author

Don Kaufman
November 10, 2025

Hey there, it’s Garrett. 

I spent this weekend at an Irish festival - feel fine, thanks - but came across research from Michael Howell that absolutely blew my mind.

What you think you know about how markets work? 

That died around 1997, and nobody told you.

The Numbers That Change Everything

Back in the mid-1990s when SPY launched, here's how markets worked:

  • 80% asset allocators - People buying companies at $20, holding five years, expecting $50 based on fundamentals

  • 10-15% leveraged players - Hedge funds playing momentum through derivatives

  • 5-10% passive - Early ETFs just tracking indices

That made sense. 

Most people analyzed companies and invested based on whether businesses were good or bad.

Today those percentages completely flipped:

  • 50% passive ETFs - Buying without caring what companies do

  • 33% leveraged players - Tripled from the 90s

  • 20% value investors - The only ones still analyzing businesses

Why Nothing Makes Sense Anymore

Fifty percent of market flows go into stocks regardless of fundamentals. 

If NVIDIA is 7.5% of the S&P, every ETF dollar puts 7.5 cents into NVIDIA whether it's overvalued or about to cure cancer.

"The Signal Before The Story"

AMD +389% in 5 days.
Tesla +155% in 4.
IONQ +74% in a month.

What if you could see the signal BEFORE the headlines?

One TheoTRADE strategist has been quietly using a market signal that puts him 3 days ahead of every major story.

This isn't charts. Not scanners. Not AI.

Something different -- showing where strength forms before it's visible anywhere else.

We've never shared this publicly.
First (and possibly only) time revealed live.

No chasing headlines. Just the signal before the story.