They Keep Printing Money (And Nobody Wants to Talk About It)

Hey it’s Garrett.

Rate cut odds for January just cratered to 3%. Markets pushed the first cut out to mid-2026. I've been telling you this for weeks: They keep printing money.

Everyone's asking how markets hit all-time highs while rate cut expectations keep getting pushed further out. 

Here's what's driving me absolutely crazy - we're at the most stretched six-month rolling average on momentum since October 27th. 

The S&P 500 just smashed through all-time highs. And simultaneously, the odds of a January rate cut have dropped precipitously to basically nothing.

(Yeah, I learned that word from a Snapple cap this morning - means something happening very suddenly, rapidly, and often dangerously.)

Do you see the disconnect? Do you see that?

While everyone's obsessing over CME Fed Watch, the real story is happening right under our noses. 

The Federal Reserve is buying $40 billion in assets. Japan just announced $117 billion in stimulus back in November. The ECB is quietly bailing out its shadow banking system - and nobody's talking about that.

This is not what matters - rate cuts. I really don't care about rate cuts at this point. I think it's just noise because of the way we drive the market higher through treasury issuance.

What actually matters: money printing, treasury issuance, Japan, ECB bailouts. All systems go, and that's how you end up with higher highs and higher lows.

James Bianco called it a month ago - they're not gonna cut rates. 

The hardcore economists, the guys who actually understand this stuff, they all know it. 

We all know it together, yet we don't talk about it. It's like the family member who owes you money - you don't bring it up.

If we don't get a cut by March, we're not getting a cut by June. There's no way they cut rates if they're printing money. It's just not gonna happen. And they know it, and you know it.

Most cycles like we're in right now end with the Fed raising rates. Not cutting. Raising. I don't know when that's going to be. I'd say probably end of year at some point, they're going to have to hike.

They'll have to hike because they'll have made a mistake like they always do. They're always behind. This happened in 2021, happened in 2018, happened in 2014.

Right now, we're at the peak of our liquidity cycle. 

We're at the point where rampant speculation in commodities is the norm. All roads continue to point to more monetary inflation.

Silver keeps melting higher - we're at $87+ now. Gold at $4,600. People keep asking how metals keep going up. Same answer: they keep printing money.

We are at 99.13 on the dollar index right now, yet somehow everyone's confused about market direction. Money wants to flow into risk assets in this environment. Don't fight the Fed, don't fight the market, don't fight momentum.

Here's what I'm doing: buy the dips through March. 

We're looking for occasional moves back to the 50-day EMA on SPY or SPXL. 

Then be willing to hand it off to somebody else who's way too optimistic about the rest of this year. 

Because when we hit March, that's where there could be some fireworks. That's when money starts to leave the money markets, starts to leave the banking system to pay taxes.

But for right now? Don't be shocked if we're at 7,200 on the S&P in the next three and a half weeks.

While everyone's obsessing over this rate cut nonsense, the real story is monetary inflation. China's about to print more money. 

Japan's currency is burning lower intentionally. The ECB is quietly backstopping their system.

Get your fingers in the dirt. 

Buy the things that matter. Buy the assets that matter. Look, this isn't complicated - most people are just watching the wrong movie.

The purpose of markets, of course, is to fool the most people possible at any given time. 

Right now, they're fooling people into thinking rate policy matters more than money printing.

Don't be one of them.

Focus on assets that benefit from all this money printing - precious metals, select commodities, and quality risk assets on any 50-day EMA pullbacks through March. Ignore rate cut noise; follow the money printing reality.

And if you like what you hear, you can find more of it in the TheoTrade Chatroom. 

Stay Positive,

Garrett Baldwin