As the presidential debate approaches between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, political analysts are closely watching the potential impact on the race.

Many believe the debate winner could emerge as the frontrunner for the presidency, highlighting just how tight this contest has become.

However, that hasn't prevented some traders from placing their bets. 

In particular, The GEO Group (GEO). 

The GEO Group is a private corporation that operates prisons and detention centers in the United States and internationally. It provides services related to the management and operation of correctional facilities, including housing inmates and managing rehabilitation programs.

Last Thursday a trader came in and bought 5,000 contracts of GEO Group (GEO) of September 13, 2024 $13.5 calls for $0.45. 

That’s a $225K bet that Trump wins the debate. 

You see, after the first debate between Trump and President Biden, GEO had a massive surge. 

Shares have since come back down, but if Trump can win the debate tomorrow, there’s a chance history could repeat itself. 

Today we saw over 1900 contracts of the $14 calls trade, and we’re now seeing some heavy open interest in both the $13.5 calls and $14.5 calls. 

Of course, these options will go to zero if Harris wins the debate. 

But this is definitely a stock to watch following Tuesday’s showdown. 

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