What else you got? Because this tape has not moved

My best trade this morning was the one I skipped.

The S&P was up 50 points. Looked green, looked fine. It was an absolute slop fest.

One stock, Broadcom, was carrying almost the whole tape. Take it out and what else you got?

Nothing. This thing has not moved.

The advance decline line was a dead 50/50. That line just counts how many stocks are up against how many are down, and it was a coin flip.

No leadership. That is the whole market this morning. That is all you got.

The expected move made the call for me before the bell even rang.

Expected move is the range the options market prices in for a stretch of time. It tells you in dollars how far the market thinks price travels.

Today it was about $50. The entire week was only $105.

So almost half the week's whole move was jammed into one day. The week is front-loaded, and by the time I sat down, most of that $50 was already spent. Who cares about chasing what is already gone?

That is when I did the hardest thing in this business. Nothing. I sat on my hands.

Anybody can fire off a trade. That is easy. Knowing when not to trade, that is the part nobody teaches you, and it is the whole game.

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and apparently expected moves. This tape was not close to a trade worth taking.

One stock carrying it, no leadership, the move already spent. There is nothing to go on.

I would rather sit back and hunt than force something because the screen is green. The forced trade is the one that runs you over. The trade you skip on a garbage morning costs you a dollar of nothing.

So do not think. Just go look at the expected move. If it is already spent and nothing is leading, do not hold your breath waiting for me to trade it.

I am not feeling it, and that is an answer too.

But if there’s another feeling I have today. And that’s generosity. 

Which is why I’m extending this offer for one more day.