Why I almost got stopped out (and why that's good)

Author

Don Kaufman
September 29, 2025

Hey there, Gianni here. 

The market was poking at my SOLZ position all day last week. We had a stop loss on a close below $20.80, and it kept teasing that level. "Hey, you gonna make a move?" - like my son calling my name while I'm trying to work.

But we didn't get stopped out. Know why? Because we have a system.

Here's what I've noticed: Most people think trading is about finding the next hot stock or predicting market direction. 

But when I look at any chart - doesn't matter if we're in a bull market or bear market - I'm following the same structure every single time.

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🔎 Stock & Sector Highlights

  • Wayfair (W): Bottoming setup in consumer discretionary. Weekly chart suggests path toward 165–170 possible if discretionary spending theme holds. Watching closely.

  • Restoration Hardware (RH): Watching for whipsaw back after two consecutive breaches of expected move.

  • Victoria’s Secret (VSCO): Potential breakout above $32.80 could confirm bottoming process.

  • MNMD (MindMed): Actual trade idea logged live. Buy current levels with stop on close below 10.67, target 17. Presents clean breakout structure.

  • Kratos Defense (KTOS): Very strong momentum name, screening well. Already extended but remains on radar.

  • AMSC: Called one of the best ideas of the year, outperforming even AppLovin.

  • Solar sector (TAN ETF): Key resistance 52–53. Break above unlocks potential for 75–80. Long-term bear market but watching carefully.

  • Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR): Biotech setup looks strong.

Wayfair, casinos, consumer discretionary – early signs that this sector could lead into year-end despite bearish sentiment.

📈 Big Picture

  • We’re in a bull market definition by price trend – higher highs and higher lows across major indices.

  • Fundamentals only matter in bear markets; right now liquidity and momentum are dominant forces.

  • Growth, tech, and communications remain the strongest year-to-date performers. Energy showed strength last week but is rolling over again.

🌍 Macro in 60 Seconds

  • Dollar: Attempted breakout failed. Administration quietly wants weaker USD; global flows confirming this. Weak dollar = pro-growth for the rest of the world.

  • Yen & Euro: Money is flowing back into Asia and Europe. Euro trend strong, Yen reversal points to capital reallocation abroad.

  • Bonds: Long bonds rebounding, confirming weaker USD. Rally likely domestic-driven (Fed, treasury, banks) rather than international buyers. Still in long-term bear market, but near-term bounce in play.

Metals: Gold exploded +50 in a day, Silver +20 over six months. Miners ripping. Strong secular uptrend but at risk of blow-off extension. Target for Silver seen eventually at 70, but timeline is